Poll: Donnelly, Braun statistically tied in Indiana Senate race

Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE (D-Ind.) and businessman Mike Braun are statistically tied in Indiana’s widely watched Senate race, according to a poll released Monday by the Indianapolis Business Journal.

Of likely voters surveyed, 41 percent back Donnelly in his bid for a second Senate term, while 40 percent said they support Braun. Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton receives 8 percent of the vote.

Donnelly’s 1-point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. 


Donnelly and Braun both have support from consistent Democratic and Republican voting blocs, with Donnelly leading among female voters, voters under 50 years old and voters with a college degree while Braun leads among white voters and voters without a degree.

The two are nearly tied with voters older than 50 years old and suburban voters. 

Democrats will likely need to keep Donnelly’s seat if they want to gain control of the Upper Chamber. They would need to pick up two seats in the midterms to take back the Senate, but they face a difficult map.

Donnelly is one of 10 Democrats defending a Senate seat in a state that President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE won in 2016. The president won Indiana by nearly 20 points.

Republicans see the seat as a possible pickup opportunity. 

The president has endorsed and campaigned with Braun, tweeting in August that he would “be going to Evansville, Indiana, tonight for a big crowd rally with Mike Braun, a very successful businessman who is campaigning to be Indiana’s next U.S. Senator. He is strong on Crime & Borders, the 2nd Amendment, and loves our Military & Vets. Will be a big night!”

A RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Donnelly with a narrow three-point lead, while The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss up.”

The poll, which was conducted by SurveyUSA and the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics, surveyed 816 likely Indiana voters online from Oct. 12-16.

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